Hollywod Park - spring meet (2007)

Track: Hollywood Park
Races:All races
Evaluation method:Trainer evaluation meet-to-date (win %) , Competitivenness (1.0 – 0.75)
Wager:Win on the third pick.


Comment: The third pick rarely goes over 20% in winning rate. By definition, lower picks are usually indicating higher value plays which occur less often. Here, first six days show quite solid entry point.


The winning rate declines to 17% but the trend produced fairly spaced long shots which should keep confidence of the player at proper level and gives some opportunities for selective play; like all low percentage – high value trends. Betting every single race from the entry point produces excellent 26 cents for each dollar bet


Bay Meadows (2007)

Track: Bay Meadows
Races:All races
Evaluation method: Speed, Workout (1.0 - 0.15) , Competitiveness(1.0 – 0.1)
Wager:Win on the first pick.


Comment: When initial computations produce results as above, I am always perplexed. 40% of winners and incredible 90 cents for a dollar bet simply cannot last. The trend must decline from here. The important question is how far it will decline. It is a very defensive entry point.


Betting all races from the entry point produces positive result; however the trend, with 30% of winners, represents one of the most challenging betting strategies. It is possible to research race categories and establish a more profitable profile. In some cases exotics can offer better return on investment. In general, remaining defensive and possibly looking somewhere else might prove to be the best strategy.

Golden Gate - spring meet(2007)

Track: Golden Gates
Races:All races
Evaluation method:Speed , Workout (1.0 – 0.35)
Wager:Win on the first pick.

Comment: This trend shows typical for Northern California high winning percentage with good profitability. This computation indicates a very solid early entry point.

This is a perfect example of a very good, uneventful trend. The evaluation method produces 27% of winners with a very nice distribution and superb profitability of 28 cents on a dollar invested. One cannot ask for anything more.


Hollywod Park - fall meet (2007)

Track: Hollywood Park
Races:All races
Evaluation method:Trainer year-to-date (win%) , Speed v06 (1.0 – 0.3)
Wager:Win on the second pick.


Comment: First five days produce very high winning percentage from the second pick. This winning percentage will go down but still it is a good starting point.


Trend holds nicely and produces 11 cents with 20% of winners – it might be considered as reasonably good one.